Hiring stalls
September payrolls +29,000; unemployment 4.2%. July and August were revised down a combined 60,000.
3 things to know
10-year eases from the year's high
The 10-year Treasury closed Thursday at 5.24%, down from 5.29% Wednesday, the highest close of 2026.
Two 8-Ks and a merger update
IBM and Tesla filed 8-Ks; Tempus AI amended its merger registration.
Bottom line
Hiring nearly stalled in September: payrolls rose 29,000, the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.2%, and July and August were revised down a combined 60,000. Coverage differs on what the Fed does next; its next meeting is October 27–28.
In company news, Nike missed fiscal Q1 revenue and guided fiscal 2027 lower, Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 486,532, and FHFA approved FICO's Direct License Program.
Rates, the dollar and the Fed
10-year Treasury
5.28%
▲ +4 bp · 1 month ▲ +49 bp
Since Jul 2 · as of Oct 2
2-year Treasury
4.83%
▲ +5 bp · 1 month ▲ +44 bp
Since Jul 2 · as of Oct 2
Dollar index (broad)
120.33
▼ −0.18% · 1 month ▲ +1.59%
Since Jun 25 · as of Sep 25
Fed funds (EFFR)
3.88%
0 bp · 1 month ▲ +25 bp
Since Jul 1 · as of Oct 1
Scoreboard
| Measure | Latest | As of | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | Since Dec 31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month T-bill | 4.19% | Oct 2 | ▲ +2 bp | ▼ −5 bp | ▲ +27 bp | ▲ +52 bp |
| 2-year | 4.83% | Oct 2 | ▲ +5 bp | ▲ +2 bp | ▲ +44 bp | ▲ +136 bp |
| 5-year | 5.06% | Oct 2 | ▲ +5 bp | ▲ +8 bp | ▲ +52 bp | ▲ +133 bp |
| 10-year | 5.28% | Oct 2 | ▲ +4 bp | ▲ +11 bp | ▲ +49 bp | ▲ +110 bp |
| 30-year | 5.63% | Oct 2 | ▲ +2 bp | ▲ +14 bp | ▲ +36 bp | ▲ +79 bp |
| 10y–2y spread | 45 bp | Oct 2 | ▼ −1 bp | ▲ +9 bp | ▲ +5 bp | ▼ −26 bp |
| Fed funds (EFFR) | 3.88% | Oct 1 | 0 bp | 0 bp | ▲ +25 bp | ▲ +24 bp |
| SOFR | 3.87% | Oct 1 | ▼ −3 bp | ▼ −1 bp | ▲ +21 bp | 0 bp |
| Dollar index (broad) | 120.33 | Sep 25 | ▼ −0.18% | ▲ +0.68% | ▲ +1.59% | ▲ +0.49% |
Rates in percent; changes in basis points (bp; 100 bp = 1 percentage point). Dollar index changes in percent. Shading shows the size of each move, darker for larger moves; arrows show the direction.
Sources: U.S. Treasury yields; Federal Reserve Board H.10 nominal broad dollar index (weekly release, via FRED); Federal Reserve Bank of New York EFFR and SOFR.
Treasury yields
10-year and 2-year yields, since Jul 2
10-year2-year
Yield curve: Oct 2 vs Jul 2
Oct 2Jul 2
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, official closes through Oct 2. Public domain.
SEC filings, Oct 1 – Oct 3
Company events and registrations
- S-4/ATEM Tempus AI: merger registration (amended)Fri, Oct 2 ›
- 8-KTSLA Tesla: results of operationsFri, Oct 2 ›
- 8-KIBM IBM: director or officer change, bylaw amendmentThu, Oct 1 ›
Insider filings (Forms 3, 4 and 144)
IBM 12× Form 4ESTC 1× Form 4, 3× Form 144PLTR 3× Form 4, 1× Form 144AI 1× Form 4, 1× Form 144HON 1× Form 3, 1× Form 4BABA 1× Form 4DDOG 1× Form 4PANW 1× Form 4PATH 1× Form 144PEGA 1× Form 144
Form 4 reports an insider's trade; Form 144 is notice of a planned sale; Form 3 is a new insider's first holdings report.
Source: SEC EDGAR, tracked companies only. Public domain.
Tracked companies
| Ticker | Name | News | Next event | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | Alcoa | Closed a $2.6B debt offering to fund the South32 asset purchase. | Earnings Oct 15 | Quote ›Filings › |
| AB | AllianceBernstein | AUM $919B (Aug 31); Onur Erzan named CEO effective Apr 1, 2027. | Earnings Oct 27 | Quote ›Filings › |
| AI | C3.ai | FY27 revenue guide $210–240M; federal bookings +138% y/y. | — | Quote ›Filings › |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | $8.2B all-stock acquisition of World Labs. | Earnings Nov 3 | Quote ›Filings › |
| AMRN | Amarin | No notable news. | Earnings Oct 28 | Quote ›Filings › |
| AMZN | Amazon | $1B data-center community pledge. | Earnings Oct 29 | Quote ›Filings › |
| B | Barrick Mining | Targeting a year-end IPO of North American operations; strike notices at its Mali complex. | Earnings Nov 9 | Quote ›Filings › |
| BABA | Alibaba | Securities class actions pending. | Lead-plaintiff deadline Oct 5 | Quote ›Filings › |
| BNDX | Vanguard Total Intl Bond ETF | No notable news. | Went ex-dividend Oct 1 | Quote ›Filings › |
| BTZ | BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust | No notable news. | Next ex-dividend ~Oct 15 | Quote ›Filings › |
| DDOG | Datadog | No notable news. | Earnings Nov 5 | Quote ›Filings › |
| DG | Dollar General | Expanded same-day delivery with Instacart. | Ex-dividend Oct 6 | Quote ›Filings › |
| ESTC | Elastic | No notable news. | Earnings Nov 19; investor meeting Oct 8 | Quote ›Filings › |
| FICO | Fair Isaac | FHFA gave VantageScore 4.0 equal pricing footing with FICO for Fannie/Freddie loans (Sep 29), then approved FICO's Direct License Program (Oct 1). | Earnings Nov 4 | Quote ›Filings › |
| FLR | Fluor | JV with JGC selected for Phase 2 of LNG Canada; backlog near $27B. | Earnings Nov 6 | Quote ›Filings › |
| HON | Honeywell | Selected for Dangote's planned Kenyan refinery. | Earnings Oct 22 | Quote ›Filings › |
| IBM | IBM | Filed an 8-K Oct 1 (officer/director change, bylaw amendment). $1B Commerce award for its quantum wafer unit. | Earnings Oct 21 | Quote ›Filings › |
| INTC | Intel | No notable news. | Earnings Oct 22 | Quote ›Filings › |
| META | Meta Platforms | New Mexico seeking $35–40B in privacy penalties after trial. | Earnings Oct 28 | Quote ›Filings › |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | Amazon reportedly exploring offloading ~$8B of Nvidia chips to investors. | Earnings Nov 18 | Quote ›Filings › |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | No notable news. | Earnings Nov 18 | Quote ›Filings › |
| PATH | UiPath | Expanded Snowflake integrations. | — | Quote ›Filings › |
| PEGA | Pegasystems | New AI products (Blueprint, Infinity). | Earnings Oct 20 | Quote ›Filings › |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Partnership with Armada on sovereign AI infrastructure; passed 1,000 customers. | Earnings ~Nov 2 | Quote ›Filings › |
| SPCX | SpaceX | NASA crew mission to the ISS this week. | Earnings Nov 17 | Quote ›Filings › |
| SVC | Service Properties Trust | No notable news. | Earnings Nov 4 | Quote ›Filings › |
| TEM | Tempus AI | Filed an amended merger registration (S-4/A) Oct 2. FDA clearance for its ECG-MR AI tool. | Earnings Nov 3 | Quote ›Filings › |
| TSLA | Tesla | Q3 deliveries 486,532; 8-K filed Oct 2. | Earnings Oct 21 | Quote ›Filings › |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | No notable news. | — | Quote ›Filings › |
| VST | Vistra | Priced $1.5B of junior subordinated notes. | Earnings Nov 6 | Quote ›Filings › |
| VT | Vanguard Total World Stock ETF | No notable news. | — | Quote ›Filings › |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | No notable news. | — | Quote ›Filings › |
| VXUS | Vanguard Total Intl Stock ETF | No notable news. | — | Quote ›Filings › |
| XTND | Xtend AI Robotics | SOCOM drone-program Phase III award. | — | Quote ›Filings › |
News from company releases and SEC filings. "Quote" opens the ticker on Nasdaq.com; "Filings" opens it on SEC EDGAR.
Top stories
Hiring nearly stalls in September
Payrolls rose 29,000 and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.2%. July and August were revised down a combined 60,000. Coverage differs on what the Fed does next.
Source: BLS Employment Situation ›
10-year yield steps back from 2026 high
The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.24% Thursday after 5.29% Wednesday, its highest close this year. The 2-year closed at 4.78%.
Source: U.S. Treasury ›
FHFA moves on credit scores
FHFA put VantageScore 4.0 on equal pricing footing with FICO for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, then approved FICO's Direct License Program.
Source: FHFA news ›
Nike cuts its outlook
Nike's fiscal Q1 revenue of $11.21B missed expectations; it guided fiscal 2027 revenue down by a high-single-digit percentage and announced layoffs.
Source: Nike investor relations ›
Tesla Q3 deliveries: 486,532
Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 486,532 and 13.7 GWh of energy storage deployed, and filed an 8-K.
Source: SEC EDGAR: Tesla 8-K ›
Economic calendar
| Fri, Oct 2, 8:30 AM ET | BLS: Employment Situation, September (released): +29,000 jobs; unemployment 4.2% |
| Fri, Oct 2, 9:30 AM ET | US stock market opens |
| Fri, Oct 2, 10:00 AM ET | Census: Factory orders and revised durable goods (August) |
| Fri, Oct 2, 10:00 AM ET | Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks |
| Tue, Oct 6, 10:45 AM ET | Fed Vice Chair Bowman speaks |
| Tue, Oct 27 – Wed, Oct 28 | FOMC meeting |
| Tue, Dec 8 – Wed, Dec 9 | FOMC meeting, with economic projections |
Times in Eastern Time (ET).
Sources: BLS, Census, Federal Reserve calendars. Company dates are in Tracked companies.
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| Source | Used for | Terms |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Par Yield Curve Rates | Yields: strip, cards, scoreboard and charts | Public domain |
| Federal Reserve Board, H.10 nominal broad U.S. dollar index (via FRED, series DTWEXBGS) | Broad dollar index (weekly release) | Public domain |
| Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reference rates (EFFR, SOFR) | Effective federal funds rate and SOFR | Free with notice |
| U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR | Filings panel and company filing links | Public domain |
| U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Jobs report and release calendar | Public domain |
| U.S. Census Bureau | Economic release calendar | Public domain |
| Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | FOMC dates and Fed speakers | Public domain |
| Company press releases and filings | Company news | Issued for publication |
| News publisher (headline and link only; summary is our own) | Top stories: headline, link and our own summary only | Headline + link |
Each figure in the daily data file records its source, as-of date and retrieval time. Provider terms were last reviewed Saturday, October 3, 2026 and are re-checked every 90 days. Not used: third-party market widgets, stock price feeds, Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, brokerage APIs, free news APIs, or full article text.